The Golden Globes are less predictable than the Oscars, which makes them harder to tip and the actual ceremony less of a slog to watch. And TV is included, which broadens the field.
Celebrated musical La La Land leads the film nominations with seven, closely followed by drama Moonlight with six, while The People vs. O.J. Simpson is poised to repeat its Emmy triumph with five nominations. The TV categories will be particularly interesting to watch this year, with the addition of popular newcomers like Stranger Things, Westworld, and The Crown joining perennial favourites Game of Thrones, Veep and Transparent.
One thing that is a dead certainty: Jimmy Fallon won’t be nearly as entertaining – or acerbic – a host as the great Ricky Gervais. But there will be less offended attendees.
Here then are STACK’s predictions for the 74th Golden Globe Awards, which will be announced January 9, Australian time.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
The emotionally devastating Manchester by the Sea is the likely winner but faces stiff competition from Moonlight, the story of a young African-American man’s journey of self discovery in a tough Miami neighbourhood. Hacksaw Ridge is an outside chance.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street
Unlike last year’s nominees, there’s actually a musical included in this category, and La La Land will win it.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton, (Loving), Andrew Garfield, (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Casey Affleck has been winning raves for his role as an uncle caring for his late brother’s teenaged son – the kind of character-inhabiting performance that’s award-worthy. Denzel is also a major contender and could upset.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Ruth Negga (Loving), Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Natalie Portman is the favourite for her portrayal of Jacqueline Kennedy in the aftermath of JFK’s assassination, however Amy Adams could snatch this for successfully deciphering an alien language.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Ryan Gosling isn’t just a pretty face – he can sing and dance too, which is a priority when it comes to starring in a musical. No contest here, however if it were simply a comedy category, the other Ryan (Reynolds) would win.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Meryl’s off-key warbling was one of the treats of FFJ, but Emma Stone is truly on song and it will be her night.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Mahershala Ali is the heart and soul of Moonlight and would be a certain Oscar winner, but who knows when it comes to the Globes. Jeff Bridges is equally likely to win for his role as a deadpan Texas Ranger in the much admired Western thriller.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Viola Davis will own this – she’s already played the role on stage and won a Tony. Michelle Williams is an outside chance. Sorry Nicole.
Best Director (Motion Picture)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
With La La Land one of the most celebrated films of the year, Damien Chazelle will have plenty of reason to dance when he wins the Globe. Mel is a possible threat, but have Hollywood completely forgiven him? Kenneth Lonergan could also cause an upset.
Best Television Series (Drama)
The Crown, Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, This Is Us, Westworld
This is the hardest category to pick. Season Six was Game of Thrones’ strongest season to date and it’s a worthy winner, but given the competition from brilliant HBO newcomer Westworld and the love for Netflix’s Stranger Things and The Crown, it’s by no means a certainty. But we’ll still go with GoT.
Best Television Series (Comedy)
Atlanta, Black-ish, Mozart in the Jungle, Transparent, Veep
Atlanta – in which a pair of cousins navigate the eponymous city’s rap scene – is the quirky new comedy hit that has everybody talking, but the unconventional family dynamic of Transparent will always be a winner in our book. And Veep has already won enough Emmys.
Best Television Performance by an Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish), Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle), Donald Glover (Atlanta), Nick Nolte (Graves), Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
We love Jeffrey Tambor and he’s brilliant as a transgender dad, but he won a Globe in 2015. Donald Glover’s university dropout turned aspiring rap manager has made a big impression and could claim the Globe.
Best Television Performance by an Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep), Sarah Jessica Parker (Divorce), Issa Rae (Insecure), Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin), Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
Insecure star and series’ co-creator Issa Rae is the hot favourite for her role in the HBO adaptation of her popular web series Awkward Black Girl.
Best Television Performance by an Actor (Drama)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), Billy Bob Thornton (Goliath), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), Matthew Rhys (The Americans), Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
Billy Bob is hotly tipped for his role as a lawyer turned ambulance chaser, but we’re hoping that Bob Odenkirk wins – the second season of Better Call Saul was a belter.
Best Television Performance by an Actress (Drama)
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander), Claire Foy (The Crown), Keri Russell (Americans), Winona Ryder (Stranger Things), Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Evan Rachel Wood is good, but her character and performance isn’t as engaging as co-star Thandie Newton’s, so a Westworld win won’t be in this category. Claire Foy’s regal poise as the young Elizabeth II will see a Globe as the crowning glory.
Best Television Performance by an Actor (Limited Series)
Riz Ahmed (The Night of), Bryan Cranston (All the Way), John Turturro (The Night of), Tom Hiddleston (Night Manager), Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J Simpson)
American Horror Story’s sibling series American Crime Story dominated the Emmy’s with its first season, The People vs. O.J. Simpson, and is likely to do the same at the Globes this year. Get your speech ready Courtney B. Vance.
Best Television Performance by an Actress (Limited Series)
Felicity Huffman (American Crime), Riley Keough (The Girlfriend Experience), Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson), Charlotte Rampling (London Spy), Kerry Washington (Confirmation)
The brilliant Sarah Paulson’s move from American horror to crime is seamless and award-worthy. No contest here.
Best Supporting Actor (Television)
Sterling K. Brown (The People v. O.J. Simpson), Hugh Laurie (The Night Manager), John Lithgow (The Crown), Christian Slater (Mr. Robot), John Travolta (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
Another Globe for O.J. – but will it be Sterling K. Brown or John Travolta? Our money is on Sterling for a performance that lives up to his name, as prosecutor Christopher Darden. However, John Lithgow could cause an upset.
Best Supporting Actress (Television)
Olivia Colman (The Night Manager), Lena Headey (Game of Thrones), Chrissy Metz (This Is Us), Mandy Moore (This Is Us), Thandie Newton (Westworld)
Olivia Colman is always fantastic and Lena Heady's Cersei is a power behind Thrones, but Thandie Newton is one of the best things in Westworld as the Host we love most – and she spends most of the show in the buff, which has got to count as commitment to a role.
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
American Crime, The Dresser, The Night Manager, The Night of, The People vs. O.J, Simpson
This one's easy – The People vs. O.J. Simpson. The real crime will be if it doesn't win.